99% Confidence of The Winner? – BiasharaTalk

Update: This article was written on the 14th of 2022, I am updating it on the 15th 12:00. Yesterday I gave my process 95% confidence, and today, I give it 99%.

On 13th June, midday, I was watching the news anxiously. I saw the Azimio coalition come together with some news updates. They made their remarks.

But behind my mind, I was left with many questions than answers.

For example, do the sentiments: we have tallied mean they have won, and they could swear themselves was it that they are not IEBC?

Then I remember a twit from Itumbi on the previous day. I went through it. The idea that Ruto has already won sparked mixed reactions from Kenyans from both political divides.

Those supporting Azimio felt Itumbi tally was farfetched, especially since the polling station numbers were in a miss.

But those supporting UDA felt it was an early sign of celebration.

But the results were announced by a blogger.

Who really trusts bloggers?

That is where I come in.

No one knows me, except for a few contacts I have. I lay my head low. No social media presence. Nothing relevant about me out there.

I am a humble Kenyan exercising my rights as a responsible citizen.

I want to ease your mind and help you see beyond the veil.

But first…,

I Am Concerned And A Little Irritated…

…by what I am seeing from our TV sets.

Politicians and some panelists are coming in front of the whole country to spill some lies. These lies culminate to hate and heighten tension among innocent Kenyans. The more they utter irresponsible words, the more confusion.

Unfortunately, as citizens, we have nothing to benefit from their hunger for power and mind-bending ideologies. These lines aim to make you believe they are fighting for your rights.

But they are creating chaos, so you can see they are working. 

Sadly, in this chaos, they benefit more from looking good.

But do not forget, it is you without Unga, not them. Thanks to the IEBC, though, everything is in their portal. As broad as daylight, anyone, whether of Kenyan descent or not, can download all form 34As or 34Bs and start tallying.

My Tallying Center

I am one of those people closely following what our local TV stations were airing until they stopped tallying.

Why will they stop relaying results that are in the public domain?

C’on?

Now the whole country is in this frenzy mood. No one knows what is happening. We are all in the dark.

In this confusion, our politicians have seen a crack of weakness to worsen it by creating even more tension.

We all saw what happened at the National Tallying center on the 13th night, a sign of mayhem.

But here is the thing in all this ploy.

Sadly, someone said, if you want to hide something from Africans, put it in the books (rephrase).

Tallying, leave alone verification, is such an arduous exercise, the proverbial book. Not many Kenyans will want to go that route.

But I am not that African. I have skills and a good background in data analysis.

I can’t stand this darkness we are in.

So, I have decided to take that business into my own hands. 

I have a laptop and a second monitor, and I know how to use them remarkably well. And the beauty of the current status, we have form 34Bs that are the consolidation of form 34As.

Aggregating form 34As is a bit tedious. It is not possible to do it as a one-man show. But with 34Bs, I don’t have to do all the 34As jobs.

Why not download them, and use my pdf reader on my second monitor and the Excel Book on my second monitor?

• My mission is to tally these preliminary results and see by myself who is winning.
• And second, to see beyond the veil. To know who among the politicians is lying to people. The very people who love and believe in them to elect them in the position they are holding. 
• Thirdly, to see what local TV stations saw that made them stop tallying, knowing, regardless of their findings, the final responsibility of announcing the winner lies on the IEBC chair Mr. Chebukati, after the verification process.

I cannot stop to wonder why they are taking Kenyans for a ride.

I feel it was wrong to stop tallying, as it makes all Kenyans look like fools by trying to manage their expectations in this manner.

Admittedly, I also understand what they are trying to prevent, the repetition of 2007 or 2017.

Even with that thought at the back of my mind, they should have let Kenyans deal with it. Now, everyone is at the mercy of our dear politicians’ propaganda.

This article aims to ensure the few Kenyans who will resonate with my views are not in the dark. My finding, contrary to what media stations hold, the worse, aims at easing the minds of my readers. Those who want to embrace sanity over the frenzy of rumors. I believe knowing the final results would have put people at ease because Kenyans understand the meaning of verification and preliminary results. 

I have done the analysis myself and ensured my entries are error-free. I am also continuing to update my data and following closely with IEBC. I also invite you to take a look at my data.

I quote the IEBC chair (rephrase); everyone has a right to tally and find their findings. But it is his right to announce the winner.

Chebukati

After all, this is a democratic process.

Is this not what democracy is all about?

Now, shall I take you through my findings?

About The Excel Sheet

Before I take you through my finding, I want to share with you my excel sheet.

I have posted it on my Google drive. I will keep updating it whenever there is an update.

I have drawn my tallying data from IEBC form 34Bs hosted (here). For those constituencies where the results have not been released through this portal, I have used the Citizen Digital Portal.

Anyone with the link can see the excel sheet but not edit it. If you want to edit it, kindly make your copy.

Form 34B Analysis

As I am writing this article, not all form 34Bs have been uploaded to the portal. According to my tally, there are 91%, a total of 267 of 291 constituencies. That means there were 24 constituencies still to be uploaded.

Among those 24, 4 forms lack the data section. I marked them as pending, like unsubmitted. I will share my finding in detail in a bit.

As you can tell, if you already downloaded my excel sheet, I have populated all the constituencies even though their forms have not been submitted.

As a result, Total Registered Voters, Total Valid Votes, and Rejected do not tally as you will expect. This is because, in those specific fields, they are empty or zero. Remember, I draw my totals from form 34Bs. Unfortunately, the data from citizen digital does not have these figures.

Just to echo my previous statement. For those constituencies we have not received their form 34Bs, I am using data from Citizen TV tally data.

I know what you might be thinking.

What if they have not tallied all polling stations?

All I know is that in the 3-constituencies I have confirmed earlier, their entries had a minor difference. Also, Citizen TV had invested a lot of workforce in their tallying center. Chances they are off are slim. 

Based on this uncertainty, I am giving my process a 95% degree of confidence. Remember, my results are preliminary. And do not conclude anything regarding who is currently leading in the tally.

May your observation allow you to make your conclusion as we wait for IEBC to relay their final verified results.

Just don’t allow someone to reason for you.

Discrepancies Observed

Honestly, I applaud IEBC under the chairmanship of Chebukati for taking the time to verify these 34Bs. While tallying, I noticed a few minor discrepancies.

As you will notice from my results, there is a minor difference between Total Valid Votes (TVR) and Overall Total Cast Votes (OCTV). I will outline those differences later. For now, let’s crunch those numbers.

Current Presidential Results Status

I have totaled 267 constituencies (34Bs) and extrapolated the remaining 24 constituencies from data I collected from Citizen Digital Portal and found the following findings.

As you can tell, Dr. Ruto has a lead here. Even without the extrapolated data from the citizen digital portal, the % win was around 51%. However, as the law outlines, this was my analysis. It was my duty as a Kenyan to tally and express my finding. However, the responsibility to conclude the winner rests with the IEBC chair Mr. Chebukati.

Updates As 12:00, 15th 2022

As I promised to keep on updating my resource, this is the final update I will make. 

It looks like today IEBC will announce the winner. All I want to do is to keep you ahead of the game.

So far, I have compiled 286 constituency results of 291. That is 98.28% of all constituencies in the country.

I have also included a second data source from NTV Kenya. 

Honestly, it could be a bit audacious to listen to every IEBC announcement. 

Why not take advantage of already available resources?

The data from the NTV portal is credible. The only problem is that they did not include the data for the total registered votes. I have left this field empty. In case I find that data, I will update my excel sheet. 

With that noted, Let me share with you my screenshots. You can always see the original compiled data here. 

Updates: 290 of 291

The only constituency I could not get an original copy (the official result or form 34B) is Tigania East. I extrapolated the data from Citizen Digital as I had earlier noted.

Now You Know The Preliminary Results. What’s Next?

If you are closely following, please do not fall into the politicians’ narrative. This election is the most credible and transparent election I have ever seen in my short life.

No matter who wins, do not be caught in the politicians’ squabbles. Be a spectator to what they know how to do best, but chaff liars.

Take this data I have tabulated, and verify it yourself.

I have left comments in the Excel sheets in case you need answers.

I have even checked for chances of rigging. I only noticed a few form 34Bs that have discrepancies. I will share my finding in a bit – hang on.

Discrepancies Seen in My Analysis

The table below shows the constituencies I observed with differences between the Total Valid Votes versus the overall sum for Raila, Ruto, Mwaure, and Wajakoya. The difference is either positive or negative. If a positive, the total sum of all candidates is huge than the Total valid votes. The vice versa also holds.

Form 34Bs With Differences Between the Total Valid Votes and Sum of The Votes Candidates Got

There is a need for IEBC to verify these constituencies to ascertain the source of error.

Here is the analysis of the above data.

The observation is random enough to attribute the error to an individual Returning Officer data entry error. If you like, they are clerical errors.

You cannot conclude there is a motive behind the error.

But if you take a close look at most of those forms 34Bs with these errors, you will notice some of them had problems with scanning or even presenting the data. Maybe it has to do with the skills of the clerks handling the forms.

Besides the above discrepancies, I noticed a few constituencies’ ROs did not upload the full form.

FORM 34Bs Without the Data Section

The following is a list of those constituencies that only submitted the signed section without the data section.

The data from these constituencies come from Citizen TV Digital. Once I get the actual totals, I will update my excel sheet.

Looking at how random they are, it looks like someone slept in class when there was a presentation on how to do it right. These ROs did not understand what needs to be scanned from form 34Bs.

Other issues Observed

Some scanned copies, from a few outliers, lacked IEBC security features. Among them is Suba North.

In other incidents, the scans were fuzzy. Visibility required a little bit of massage to see the entries.

All other comments about my observation are in the Excel sheet.

Generally, I don’t think these discrepancies are substantial enough to affect the final results.

Recommendations To IEBC

I know this section seems like a far fetch on the grounds you know nothing about me. Granted, I am not popular nor an expert you know from somewhere.

Luckily, I am a silent scholar.

That noted, the elephant in the room has to do with the verification process. It is stomach-aching slow, crawling. It is creating anxiety.

I bet IEBC did not see this coming.

But what can they do to fix it?

Before I give you my findings, let me share with you my recent and current side hustle.

A Side Story

In 2019, I was among a few, a little over 3000 young Kenyans, lucky to get a position as Public Service Commission Interns (PSCI). We were the first cohort. In my mind, and among others, the opportunity was a window toward real employment.  

Sadly, in 2020, some about 4-months into a one-year contract, covid hit. That’s when I knew all our hopes were fine dreams. My friends and workmates still held the hope of absorption before the expiry of our contract.

But all I can remember is how puzzling it was after the government spent all that amount on staff training but did take advantage of the young workforce.

Nevertheless, I knew it was time to switch gears. I did not want to indulge in many activities. I had narrowed it down to two things:

1. Do online writing as I always do. But I don’t enjoy it like I love my second option.
2. Learn to code and find a job in the tech industry.

I started with the first option, only to realize the fatigue I was going through a few months into it was unbearable.

So, in 2021, I decided to go all in into coding. It has been my long dream. I had a few consultations that gave me minimum income to keep me going but not distract my journey.

As a software engineer, self-taught, I feel like my last 1-year plus can contribute something to the IEBC plate.

IEBC Proposal to Improve on Data Verification

I understand IEBC is trying to prevent data hacking by using scanned forms.

However, this has created immense trouble in data verification and entry.

Here is the current process in a nutshell.

The process starts with POs at the polling stations, with form 34As for presidential results. They have a manual form that they scan after agencies verification.

The ROs at the constituency tallying center receives the original 34As (hard copies) and records all the form 34As into form 34Bs, once again manually. Then, scan that entry and attach it to the portal.

They physically take the form to the Bomas for verification.

From my background in Operations Management, the process itself is a bottleneck. It is lengthy and exhausting. Above all, it is prone to data entry errors.

A fix to this is to ensure polling stations are the only single source of truth. If there will be errors, they should be at the polling station level and not along the pipeline. The pipeline should be a fix, not a bottleneck.

What that means, the IEBC should build a system supporting dynamic form 34As. POs will be the only persons allowed to create form 34As entry by keying polling results.

To add a second security feature.

They have to fill in manual form 34As and scan them as they did in these elections. That means following the current process at the polling station level.

The data they enter in this dynamic form should not be editable once everyone in the polling verifies it is correct and the scanned copy is attached and sent.

That results should aggregate form 34Bs automatically. ROs at the constituency level should use the physical form 34As to verify the digital form 34As submitted by the POs. If there is an error in the entry, the physical form 34A should be the fallback. RO should be able to amend the error without altering the original entry.

Since the system eliminates the manual aggregation and verification done at the constituency tallying center or even at the National tallying center, the process should be faster – way too fast because it will be about comparing entries between the dynamic form and the physical form.

If I did this tallying alone using 34Bs all by myself, keying each constituency manually for under 8 hours, how about just counter-checking if a physical form data is similar to the values in the system?

If IEBC implements such a system, the second phase is to deal with the security of this system.

In this phase, there is no room for errors. System security should stay secure as it is right now.

It should be tested and tested over and over again before deploying it.

• Upon implementing this system, it will be seamless to relay real-time data.
• Staff exhaustion will be at a minimum. And not to mention, there won’t be such anxiety among Kenyans as we are seeing right now.
• Even integrating a digital voting system will be damn easy, given the infrastructure will be already there.

By the second day, we would have had the preliminary results streaming in, awaiting Chebukati verification and winner announcement.

Bottom Line

I may not be your uncle Sam who has 15 or 25 years of experience in data analysis and matters of elections and politics, but I love peace and this country.

In 2007, I almost lost my life to post elections violence. I lost friends, while my family had to relocate and start afresh.

I had to make new friends and live in a new environment I was not used to.

It became my turning point for better or for worse.

Here we are again in the same position. Same political environment. Almost the same politicians.

Let us not allow politicians to get into our heads and skew our perspectives.

Our media should have been kind enough to be transparent and continue to air their result to prevent all these rumors politicians are trying to spread. They should have tallied to the last vote as they await Chebukati to do the verification and final announcement.

To make people believe in them, they should have had a consortium of a tallying center involving all media houses. That way, no one could have questioned their validity if they were all on the same page.

What we are seeing has a lot to do with their failure to protect our constitutional rights.

It is clear we are not yet off the hook of political shackles.

Our democracy has matured.

I believe people could have been calm and rested knowing the truth instead of delaying the inevitable.

It could be unlike this feeling of being under siege of our creation, political poles.

These are my thoughts, what’s yours?